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LV

LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP (LVS)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered a clear beat: net revenue $3.18B vs S&P Global consensus $2.84B*, adjusted EPS $0.79 vs $0.53*, driven by record Marina Bay Sands (MBS) EBITDA and favorable hold; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.66 .
  • MBS posted adjusted property EBITDA of $768M (55.3% margin), with high rolling-chip hold adding ~$107M; management reiterated MBS can realistically reach ~$2.5B annual EBITDA .
  • Macau adjusted property EBITDA was $566M; management acknowledged underperformance and a pivot to more aggressive customer reinvestment to regain share and EBITDA .
  • Capital returns remain a catalyst: LVS repurchased $800M in Q2 (20M shares, avg $39.59), paid a $0.25 dividend, and increased SCL ownership to 73.4% .
  • Strategic momentum: Singapore IR2 groundbreaking (US$8B ultra-luxury resort + 15k-seat arena), supporting long-term high-value tourism growth narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • MBS record performance: $768M adjusted property EBITDA, 55.3% margin; rolling chip volume $8.95B with 5.26% win; non-rolling win 23.7% and ADR $888 . CEO: “It’s unprecedented for a single building to perform like this… $2.5B is realistic and doable” .
  • Londoner Macao ramp: net revenues up to $642M (+$198M YoY) and EBITDA $205M (+$102M YoY); stronger non-rolling and slot metrics; rooms ADR $259, RevPAR $242 .
  • Shareholder returns and balance sheet actions: $800M LVS buyback; $179M of Sands China stock purchases to 73.4% ownership; unrestricted cash $3.45B; total debt $15.68B; refinancings via $1.5B senior notes and term loan drawdowns .

What Went Wrong

  • Macau underperformance vs internal goals: management “was not aggressive enough” on reinvestment; pivoted mid-quarter to increase promotional activity to regain share .
  • Venetian, Plaza/Four Seasons margin pressures: Venetian EBITDA margin declined to 35.6% (-260 bps YoY); Plaza/Four Seasons margin 34.0% (-600 bps YoY) amid rolling-chip volatility .
  • Sands China GAAP net income fell to $214M (vs $246M YoY); market remains highly competitive, with base mass spend per head lagging and non-Guangdong overnight visitation still below 2019 levels .

Financial Results

Consolidated trend and estimates comparison

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Net Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.90 $2.86 $3.18
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.45 $0.49 $0.66
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.54 $0.59 $0.79
Adjusted Property EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.11 $1.14 $1.33
Adjusted Property EBITDA Margin (%)38.3% 39.8% 42.0%
Consensus Revenue ($USD Billions)—$2.89*$2.84*
Consensus Primary EPS ($)—$0.569*$0.531*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment breakdown (Net Revenues and Adjusted Property EBITDA)

SegmentQ2 2024 Net Rev ($MM)Q1 2025 Net Rev ($MM)Q2 2025 Net Rev ($MM)Q2 2024 EBITDA ($MM)Q1 2025 EBITDA ($MM)Q2 2025 EBITDA ($MM)
Macao Operations (Total)1,754 1,709 1,797 561 535 566
Marina Bay Sands1,016 1,163 1,388 512 605 768
The Venetian Macao686 638 663 262 225 236
The Londoner Macao444 529 642 103 153 205
The Parisian Macao265 227 194 83 66 44
Plaza & Four Seasons Macao250 208 194 100 74 66
Sands Macao79 75 71 10 10 9

KPIs and operational drivers

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Hold-adjusted impact on EBITDA (MBS) ($MM)+46 — +107
Hold-adjusted impact on EBITDA (Macao) ($MM)+4 +10 +7
MBS Rolling Chip Volume ($MM)$6,075 $8,028 $8,945
MBS Rolling Chip Win %4.68% 3.70% (benchmark revised) 5.26%
MBS Non-Rolling Chip Win %17.8% 22.8% 23.7%
MBS Occupancy / ADR / RevPAR95.3% / $797 / $759 95.6% / $925 / $884 95.0% / $888 / $844
LVS Share Repurchases ($MM)—$450 $800
Unrestricted Cash ($B)—$3.04 $3.45
Total Debt ($B)—$13.71 $15.68
Capex ($MM)—$379 $286

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per shareQ2 2025$0.25 for May 14, 2025 $0.25 next payable Aug 13, 2025 Maintained
Share Repurchase Authorization RemainingQ1 2025 endIncreased to $2.0B (remaining) $1.20B remaining as of Jun 30, 2025 Lower (utilization)
Expected Rolling Chip Win % (MBS)BenchmarkRevised to 3.70% in Q1 2025 Maintain 3.70% benchmark; Q2 hold above expected Maintained benchmark
Effective Tax RateQ1 202513.4% 14.8% (Singapore statutory 17% driver) Higher
SCL Ownership (LVS)Jan 7, 202572.3% 73.4% as of Jul 23, 2025 Raised
Major ProjectsOngoingMBS Tower 3 rooms complete; public space ongoing Singapore IR2 groundbreaking (US$8B) Advanced execution
Debt Refinancing2025 maturitiesPlan to address $500M LVS bonds; SCL term loan access Issued $1.5B senior notes; drew SCL and Singapore term loans Executed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Macau reinvestment strategyAcknowledge competitive pressure; Londoner ramp to drive growth “We were not aggressive enough” on reinvestment; pivot to increase customer reinvestment mid-quarter More aggressive promotional stance
MBS performance and hold3.70% expected roll win set; mass-led EBITDA strength Record $768M EBITDA; high hold added ~$107M; sustainability debated Stronger, with upside narrative
Capital allocation (buybacks, SCL stake)Active repurchases; targeting 74.9% SCL $800M LVS buyback; SCL stake 73.4% Continued acceleration
Singapore expansion (IR2)Tower 3 rooms complete; ongoing public space works Groundbreaking for US$8B IR2; government support Execution milestone achieved
Retail mall trendsMixed luxury sales; positive YoY trend in Macau malls Tenant sales growth ~10% in Macau; flagship luxury stores lift outlook Improving
Regulatory/macroNon-gaming investment commitments; NBA preseason partnership Ongoing event-driven visitation support; market remains competitive Stable with supportive events

Management Commentary

  • Rob Goldstein (CEO): “Singapore is a very desirable destination… It’s unprecedented for a single building to perform like this… $2.5 billion is realistic and doable.”
  • Rob Goldstein (CEO) on Macau: “We were not aggressive enough… we changed our approach to increase market share and EBITDA.”
  • Patrick Dumont (President & COO): “MBS’ EBITDA was $768 million… If we had held as expected… EBITDA would have been lower by $107 million.”
  • Grant Chum (Sands China CEO): “We started a more aggressive customer reinvestment program in late April… initial results are encouraging.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Macau strategy reset: Management conceded underinvestment in reinvestment; pivoting to be “in the mix” competitively with targeted promotional activity across properties to recapture EBITDA and share .
  • MBS sustainability: Team sees mass/premium mass as core driver; while quarterly hold is volatile, product improvements and high-value tourism underpin strength; caution against extrapolating extraordinary hold .
  • Side bets/smart tables: Adoption increases theoretical hold; best practices from Singapore being applied in Macau; expect industry-wide higher holds over time .
  • IR2 execution: Groundbreaking completed; construction designed to avoid disruption to current operations; thesis is investment-driven growth .
  • Credit play in Macau: Credit-based play is a small portion of GGR; consistent, experienced management; not a major driver .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 results beat consensus: revenue $3.175B vs $2.835B*, adjusted EPS $0.79 vs $0.531* .
  • Q1 2025 was modest beat: revenue $2.862B vs $2.890B*, adjusted EPS $0.59 vs $0.569* .
  • Annual consensus points to sustained growth: FY25 revenue ~$12.66B*, EBITDA ~$5.11B*, normalized EPS ~$2.89*, FY26 targets higher*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The magnitude and quality of the Q2 beat was driven by MBS mix and hold, but underlying premium mass strength and suite product upgrades suggest durable earnings power beyond hold volatility .
  • Macau is a near-term execution story: watch reinvestment intensity, base/premium mass share, and Venetian/Londoner margin trajectory as indicators of the pivot’s success .
  • Capital returns likely continue as a support: ongoing buybacks (remaining $1.20B authorization) and steady $0.25 dividend create a floor for equity value while IR2 capex ramps .
  • IR2 milestone expands the medium-term thesis: US$8B ultra-luxury development plus a 15k-seat arena should deepen high-value tourism funnel; expect narrative support and potential multiple expansion as milestones are met .
  • Monitor hold normalization at MBS (3.70% benchmark) and side-bet adoption trends; sustained higher non-rolling win % points to structural uplift in margin profile .
  • Balance sheet capacity and recent refinancings de-risk near-term maturities; term facilities in Singapore/Macao provide flexibility for project funding and buybacks .
  • Trading lens: Near-term, stock should react to outsized beat and IR2 momentum; risks include Macau competitive intensity and VIP/mass mix volatility, but reinvestment changes and event calendars support H2 trajectory .